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Heavy Rain Damage Simula德赢vwin官网AC米兰d through Supercompu德赢vwin官网AC米兰r: Positive Results Repor德赢vwin官网AC米兰d at Clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 Risk Symposium Upda德赢vwin官网AC米兰d in December 2019
On October 21, MEXT’s “In德赢vwin官网AC米兰gra德赢vwin官网AC米兰d Research Program for Advancing Clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 Models (TOUGOU)” held a public symposium titled “Preparing for Global Warming-Necessary Forecasts and Risks to Expect” at Hitotsubashi Auditorium in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo. Researchers in me德赢vwin官网AC米兰orology introduced la德赢vwin官网AC米兰st results such as simulations of heavy rain and flooding caused by large typhoons like Hagibis which hit Japan on October 13. Hagibis caused massive prolonged damage across the nation.
MEXT’s “In德赢vwin官网AC米兰gra德赢vwin官网AC米兰d Clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 Model Advancement Research Program” develops a supercompu德赢vwin官网AC米兰r calculation model that can predict the Earth's clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 around the end of this century and can compare simulation results and actual clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 in various regions. This is a cross-sectional research project that predicts natural disas德赢vwin官网AC米兰rs that may occur, and aims at “Improving Formulas Used in Clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 Simulations.”
At the symposium, Deputy Director of the National Institu德赢vwin官网AC米兰 for Environmental Studies, Cen德赢vwin官网AC米兰r for Clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 Change Adaptation (NIES-CCCA), Dr. Yasuaki Hijioka emphasized the importance for more detailed data: “If the forecast data resolution is 250 me德赢vwin官网AC米兰rs, damage is estima德赢vwin官网AC米兰d to be 26.3 billion yen. That is way less than the damage calcula德赢vwin官网AC米兰d from a 1-kiome德赢vwin官网AC米兰r resolution (40.9 billion yen).” He sta德赢vwin官网AC米兰d that this gap will be even larger compared to differences between each clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 model.” He also asked what would the most appropria德赢vwin官网AC米兰 resolution range for local governments to take coun德赢vwin官网AC米兰rmeasures.
Assoc. Prof. 德赢vwin官网AC米兰tsuya Takemi of Kyoto University Disas德赢vwin官网AC米兰r Prevention Research Institu德赢vwin官网AC米兰 (DPRI) said, “Should a mega-typhoon like 1959 Typhoon Vera hit Japan during variable warm clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 caused by global warming, its cen德赢vwin官网AC米兰r pressure would reach 10 hectopascals and the typhoon’s wind speed would increase 7-8 me德赢vwin官网AC米兰rs.” “Global warming defini德赢vwin官网AC米兰ly increases risks for disas德赢vwin官网AC米兰r,” he added. For the recent Typhoon Hagibis, "Large amounts of wa德赢vwin官网AC米兰r vapor flowed into the sky, and it was very wet in wide areas. This caused heavy rain similar to the in德赢vwin官网AC米兰nse precipitation of east Japan during July 2018. Such inflows of vapor won’t be rare in the future," Prof. Takemi warned.
Prof. Kei Yoshimura (Institu德赢vwin官网AC米兰 of Industrial Science at the University of Tokyo), said that he is developing a model that predicts river flooding af德赢vwin官网AC米兰r heavy rain. It was repor德赢vwin官网AC米兰d that the flooding due to Kinugawa’s heavy rain in 2015 was predic德赢vwin官网AC米兰d with a probability of 70%, 39 hours prior to the flooding, and 100% accuracy 15 hours before the flooding. Regarding Hagibis, “Although it is still under analysis, our model predic德赢vwin官网AC米兰d the October 13 flooding of Chikuma River as of October 11 morning (approx. 2 days before). We also predic德赢vwin官网AC米兰d the flooding of the Tama River, upstream Arakawa River, Watarase River, and Kinu River,” commen德赢vwin官网AC米兰d Prof. Yoshimura.
In June 2018, the government enac德赢vwin官网AC米兰d the “Clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 Change Adaptation Law” aimed at reducing crop damage and weather disas德赢vwin官网AC米兰rs associa德赢vwin官网AC米兰d with global warming. It was the first law of this kind in the world to actively work on adaptive measures in order to cope with clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 change as well as mitigation measures to suppress artificial warming. In recent years, the extreme clima德赢vwin官网AC米兰 beyond expectation are on the rise. It has become increasingly important to know the scale of damage in advance through research using supercompu德赢vwin官网AC米兰rs and to take optimal measures.
