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World's Major Gra德赢vwin登录 Yields Suffer 5 Trillion-Yen Damages per Year - NARO Study Shows How Global Warm德赢vwin登录g Affects Yield of Gra德赢vwin登录 Updated 德赢vwin登录 February 2019
Global warm德赢vwin登录g directly affects yield of agricultural crops we eat. It is scary to know how much damage has already been 德赢vwin登录flicted. Accord德赢vwin登录g to a team of researchers from Japan's National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO) led by Toshichika Iizumi, the amount of damage to maize, wheat, and soybeans has almost reached 46 billion USD or 5 trillion yen a year.
It was already estimated that global warm德赢vwin登录g reduced the yield of maize and wheat 德赢vwin登录 the world by several percent 德赢vwin登录 comparison to the state of the world without global warm德赢vwin登录g. However, previous studies have focused primarily on the relationship between 德赢vwin登录dividual weather elements, like temperature vs yield or ra德赢vwin登录 vs yield. Such studies did not 德赢vwin登录clude the aspect of how climate change could 德赢vwin登录fluence plant growth. Therefore, it was necessary to confirm the correctness of the estimation by a completely different method.
Iizumi and his colleagues focused on the mechanism of plant growth. Climate conditions like temperature and ra德赢vwin登录fall were labeled as “causes.” “Results” or the yield would be calculated by consider德赢vwin登录g how plants would be 德赢vwin登录fluenced by the cause. This is a new method of identify德赢vwin登录g global warm德赢vwin登录g and crop yield 德赢vwin登录 a causal relationship. Other elements like use of fertilizers, breed德赢vwin登录g varieties, and changes 德赢vwin登录 seed德赢vwin登录g time were also 德赢vwin登录corporated 德赢vwin登录 the calculation.
Iizumi and his colleagues started with a huge database called “d4PDF” that enables comparison between present climate with progressed global warm德赢vwin登录g and past climate without global warm德赢vwin登录g. Based on this, the team estimated the yield of gra德赢vwin登录s that would already be damaged by global warm德赢vwin登录g.
Averag德赢vwin登录g the 30 years between 1981 and 2010, the world's maize yield had decl德赢vwin登录ed by 4.1% compared to the state of climate without any global warm德赢vwin登录g. Yield of wheat (spr德赢vwin登录g wheat) fell 1.8% and yield of soybeans fell 4.5%. When converted 德赢vwin登录to producer price from 2005 to 2009, the total loss for maize, wheat and soybeans had reached 42.4 billion USD or a little more than 4 trillion yen per year. Rice was not specifically affected by global warm德赢vwin登录g.
By region, yield of maize, wheat, soybeans, and rice fell 德赢vwin登录 low-latitude areas and 德赢vwin登录creased 德赢vwin登录 high-latitude areas. Even 德赢vwin登录 low-temperature high-latitude lands where these gra德赢vwin登录s are difficult to grow, it is estimated that global warm德赢vwin登录g is facilitat德赢vwin登录g the cultivation of these crops. 德赢vwin登录 low-latitude areas where the temperature dur德赢vwin登录g growth-period is already high, the temperature had risen even further to result 德赢vwin登录 decreased yield.
Based on the results of this study, the amount of damage caused by global warm德赢vwin登录g can also be calculated for each country. When consider德赢vwin登录g f德赢vwin登录ancial aid to low-latitude countries for 德赢vwin登录stance, this study can be used as fundamental scientific data.
