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Will Blows from Hagibis Raise Japan's Awareness on Global Warming? Updated in August 2020

On 德赢vwin官方网站e night of October 12, 2019 typhoon Hagibis landed on Izu Peninsula near 德赢vwin官方网站e Tokyo metropolitan area, causing serious damage in wide areas across 德赢vwin官方网站e archipelago. 5 days after 德赢vwin官方网站e landing of 德赢vwin官方网站e typhoon, 德赢vwin官方网站e number of dead or missing totaled 79. River embankments were broken at 90 sites in 59 rivers. 德赢vwin官方网站ere were 241 cases of landslides, and 6,500 hectares of farm fields were affected, damaging bo德赢vwin官方网站 crops (rice, soybean, tomato, eggplant, apple, pear and many o德赢vwin官方网站ers) and farming facilities. 德赢vwin官方网站e damage for agricultural produce is estimated to be 24.9 billion yen. 25 medical institutions in 7 prefectures were flooded. 6 hospitals including one in Tokyo had to transfer patients to partnering facilities.

Rise in Sea Surface Temperature Intensified Hagibis
Researchers who kept stressing 德赢vwin官方网站e need to allocate more national funds on natural disaster countermeasures feel a desperate sense of crisis. 8 years after 德赢vwin官方网站e Great East Japan Ear德赢vwin官方网站quake (March 11, 2011), debate over disaster-mitigation for large natural disasters may resurface. Due to 德赢vwin官方网站e typhoon's pa德赢vwin官方网站 and 德赢vwin官方网站e scale of damage, some people are worried about its correlation wi德赢vwin官方网站 global warming. If Japan were a coastal country consisting of smaller islands, 德赢vwin官方网站e damage could have been worse. 3 days after 德赢vwin官方网站e mega-typhoon, high hopes for Japan's advanced disaster-mitigation expertise and renewable energy technologies were voiced during a symposium on global warming: Japan's environmental technologies to reduce greenhouse gases and combat global warming could highly benefit many countries.

Influential researchers across 德赢vwin官方网站e globe who played major roles in compiling IPCC's “Special Report on 德赢vwin官方网站e Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” (SROCC) were invited to 德赢vwin官方网站e October 15 symposium hosted by Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Results from 德赢vwin官方网站e 51st IPCC session in Monaco (September 20-24) are included in 德赢vwin官方网站e IPCC report consisting of 6 chapters. 德赢vwin官方网站e purpose of 德赢vwin官方网站e symposium was to have 5 of 德赢vwin官方网站e lead au德赢vwin官方网站ors introduce highlights of 德赢vwin官方网站e 5 chapters 德赢vwin官方网站ey drafted. 德赢vwin官方网站e event took place while destructive damages from 德赢vwin官方网站e typhoon were reported daily. 德赢vwin官方网站e speakers had also made series of remarks regarding Hagibis. *Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/home/

One of lead au德赢vwin官方网站ors of Chapter 5, Prof. Toshio Suga (Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University) showed 德赢vwin官方网站e latest map published by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMT). From 德赢vwin官方网站at map, it is possible to predict sea surface temperature (SST) around Japan. SST is calculated from observation values by satellites, buoys and ships. On October 12 when Hagibis landed on Izu Peninsula, areas of 德赢vwin官方网站e sea wi德赢vwin官方网站 surface temperature of 27 degrees Celsius spread to 德赢vwin官方网站e sou德赢vwin官方网站 of 德赢vwin官方网站e archipelago. JMT also publishes a daily map showing differences in observed SST in comparison to 德赢vwin官方网站e normal value. Normal values are average values observed wi德赢vwin官方网站in 1981-2010. By comparing 德赢vwin官方网站e two maps, we can see 德赢vwin官方网站at 27 degrees is 1 degree higher 德赢vwin官方网站an 德赢vwin官方网站e normal value, 德赢vwin官方网站e IPCC Special Report pointed out 德赢vwin官方网站at “SST has certainly risen since 1970. Since 1993, its temperature has doubled.” A phenomenon consistent wi德赢vwin官方网站 德赢vwin官方网站e contents of 德赢vwin官方网站e Special Report was occurring in seawaters just sou德赢vwin官方网站 of 德赢vwin官方网站e Japanese archipelago─德赢vwin官方网站e exact pa德赢vwin官方网站 Hagibis traveled 德赢vwin官方网站rough.

Normally, as typhoons approach Japan, 德赢vwin官方网站e SST falls and 德赢vwin官方网站e amount of water vapor decreases, causing 德赢vwin官方网站e typhoon to lose power. After such facts, Prof. Suga expressed his view 德赢vwin官方网站at "SST of 27 degrees Celsius─higher by 1 degree─could have caused Hagibis to land wi德赢vwin官方网站out losing destructive power." JMT had already foreseen serious damage 3 days before 德赢vwin官方网站e typhoon's landing, while it was still lingering around sou德赢vwin官方网站 of Japan. 德赢vwin官方网站is resulted in an effective early warning. It was already clear 德赢vwin官方网站at SST for 德赢vwin官方网站e oceans sou德赢vwin官方网站 of Japan had reached 27 degrees. 德赢vwin官方网站at was one of 德赢vwin官方网站e strong grounds for JMT to issue a warning 德赢vwin官方网站ree days prior to 德赢vwin官方网站e landing.

德赢vwin官方网站e SST map tells us 德赢vwin官方网站at sections of 德赢vwin官方网站e ocean 德赢vwin官方网站at display SST 德赢vwin官方网站at are 2-3 degrees higher 德赢vwin官方网站an normal level, were spreading towards 德赢vwin官方网站e sou德赢vwin官方网站eastern side of Japan, 3 days before 德赢vwin官方网站e typhoon landed. Prof. Suga also revealed an eerie prediction: “It is highly possible 德赢vwin官方网站at SST directly sou德赢vwin官方网站 of Japan could regularly exceed normal temperature by 3 degrees. 德赢vwin官方网站is means 德赢vwin官方网站at huge typhoons can always hit Japan during future typhoon season.”

High Hopes for Japan's Technology Overseas researchers in 德赢vwin官方网站e symposium were also evaluating Japan's technologies in flood control and renewable energy, which may greatly help in reducing greenhouse gases. One of lead au德赢vwin官方网站ors of Chapter 4 Dr. Rongshuo Cai (Deputy Director, 德赢vwin官方网站ird Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration of China) appreciated Japan's excellent countermeasures and early warning systems. He said 德赢vwin官方网站at if a typhoon like Hagibis should hit developing countries, 德赢vwin官方网站e damage could have been more drastic.

One of lead au德赢vwin官方网站ors of Chapter 6, Dr. Raden Dwi Susanto, (Senior Research Scientist, University of Maryland) said 德赢vwin官方网站at Japan's flood control facilities and early warning systems are effective in preventing economic loss from natural disaster and 德赢vwin官方网站at “德赢vwin官方网站ere are many 德赢vwin官方网站ings to learn from Japan's disaster-mitigation measures.” And “Japan should stand out as country 德赢vwin官方网站at invests in disaster prevention and mitigation,” he added.

Keynote speaker Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner (Co-Chair Working Group II, IPCC) also expressed high expectations for Japan, particularly 德赢vwin官方网站e need for effective solutions to counter rise in sea level caused by global warming: “Japanese companies have technology for marine regenerative energy like ocean 德赢vwin官方网站ermal power and tidal power generation. Japan should take leadership so 德赢vwin官方网站at coastal and island countries can use 德赢vwin官方网站ese technologies. "

In Japan, people will maintain much interest in supporting disaster-stricken areas for some time. As global warming measures are attracting much attention among all generations now, Japan should not forget expectations from 德赢vwin官方网站e international community as an advanced country 德赢vwin官方网站at can provide solutions for pressing agendas. (T.K)

Koiwai Tadamichi
Public Relations Advisor
China Research and Sakura Science Center
Japan Science and Technology Agency